Tomorrow is Major League Baseball Opening Day. Detroit's opener is televised on ESPN. Playing at Yankee Stadium on Opening Day always helps. I'll be tuned in at 1:05.
Detroit officially placed Carlos Guillen and Joel Zumaya on the DL to start the season. Neither is a surprise, based on recent events and longer term trends.
Guillen is still recovering from microfracture surgery on his knee. Officially it's a 15 Day DL. But the fact is that this is the type of injury that can go on all year and he's injury prone anyway. So honestly, if Guillen contributes more than about 6 HR and 30 RBI this season I'd be very surprised.
Joel Zumaya is still experiencing pain in the elbow that he broke last last. Again, allegedly the 15 Day DL. But he's had all sorts of finger and arm problems, and this is the third time in 4 seasons he's started the season on the DL. The last 3 in a row he's ended it on the DL as well. He's young. He's got raw talent. But some pitchers just can't keep their arms healthy enough to reach it.
There's alot of excitement around Detroit, with hopes of all the at-bats that rookies got last year translating into even bigger seasons for Austin Jackson, Alex Avilla, Will Rhymes, Casper Wells, and Brennan Boesch.
They made significant additions in the lineup and in the bullpen. They didn't lose any key players. They shed overpriced contracts off the books and cut ties with some guys whose time had come. I wouldn't have minded seeing Armando Galarraga return. But he'd underachieved for 3 years and did his part to ensure losing his place on the team. It was time for Bonderman to go. It was time for Gerald Laird to go. Much kudos to his dominance at throwing out base stealers, but you give back what you take away when you hit .200 or less for 3 straight seasons.
So very well paid guys who weren't getting it done gone. Promising young players in. If there's a knock on Jackson it's that he struck out waaaaaaay too much. I think he led the AL. But he was a 2 week slump at the end of the season from hitting .300 and had the highest batting average on balls hit in play since Ichiro back in 2003. When he actually hit the ball rather than making that post-strikeout turn to the dugout he hit .396. If he can cut that 170 strikeouts down to 120 he could be more like a .320 hitter. Also his .345 on-base percentage is pretty low for a guy who hit .293 and also had that insane batting average on balls put in play. Cutting the strikeouts down will help, especially if he can lay off some bad pitches and walk more. He only walked 47 times and you'd definitely like to see more out of a leadoff hitter.
Also, with his blazing speed, Detroit needs more than 27 stolen bases out of him. Especially since he's the only base stealing threat they have. Jackson has said he's emphasized his reading of pitchers and his leadoff move, and his goal is to steal at least 40 this year. That's even more important since he power hasn't developed yet. Scouts say that with his frame he should fill out to the point of having enough muscle to be a 15-20 homer guy at leadoff. He hit 4 homers last year along with 10 triples and 34 doubles. The triples will come in cavernous Comerica Park, just like they did with Curtis Granderson before Jackson. Only 34 doubles means Jackson's not driving the ball in the gap. Again not a mega criticism but if he's going to be a star, and if he's going to continue to have 134 of his 182 hits in a season land him at first base as singles, he needs to be able to steal more bases to get himself to second base base more often. You can live with 134 singles if the odds of stealing second base to advance anyway are high. The threat of the stolen base usually gives a batter better pitches to hit. Having a runner at second base instead of first also affects the pitches the batter sees.
Will Rhymes, in the one month look he got last year, seems to be a solid contact hitter and definitely has gap power. He needs to work on his defense a bit and we'll see if the .304 batting average was a fluke. The Tigers' organization seems to think it's not.
Brennan Boesch has monster power, as demonstrated by his crushing of the ball in the first half. He also has the ability to pressure himself when he's slumping, swing at bad pitches, and fall apart, as demonstrated by the .163 second half with 2 homers and 19 RBIs, and most of those coming via sac flies and groundouts. He had very few RBI hits in the second half. If he can lay off the down and away pitches that most left-handed batters see a ton of and be willing to take a walk if he doesn't get a pitch he likes, he should be okay. He showed some signs in Spring Training of taking some walks and settling for some opposite field singles by going with the outside pitch a bit. He also had a couple 420+ foot tape measure homers. He did something right in order to win a spot in an extremely hard fought outfield battle. But still if you hit .345 with 12 homers and 42 RBIs in a half season of baseball that's going to give you a second look, unless you just show no signs of all of making adjustments to the issues that led to the fall back to Earth in the second half.
Alex Avila is going to be catching 100+ games this season, since Victor Martinez is going to be more DH than catcher.
Detroit added Victor Martinez of course, one of the better hitters in the game. That's an upgrade. You can plug him in for a .300 batting average, 20+ homers and 90-some RBIs or more. The talk of most analysts is that Detroit is one hitter short of being able to win the AL Central.
You can pencil in Miguel Cabrera for a batting average around .300 with 30 some homers and 110+ RBIs. A monster MVP type season where he's closer to 40 homers and 140 RBIs is certainly well within his capabilities.
If he stays healthy Magglio Ordonez should be good for a near .300 batting average, 15-20 homers and 85-95 RBIs.
Then there's Martinez.
But after that who is going to be the big productive bat, especially if Cabrera starts getting pitched around?
Brandon Inge? He'll be good for about 70-75 RBIs. But he'll hit .240 to do it. Last year he had an absurd batting average with 2-outs and runners in scoring position. He was something like 0-25 or 1-30 or something. And his batting average after the 7th inning was pitiful. Inge is the guy for whom the other team brings in a relief matchup specialist in a tight late game situation in order to get him out. He's not the guy who gets the tough hit anyway and spoils the strategy. So no.
Jhonny Peralta? We'll see. Probably good for 80 RBIs or so. But may only hit about .250. That's still an improvement over the offensive black hole at shortstop the last few years but maybe not enough.
Ryan Raburn? Maybe. He pounded the ball in the second half. Not only did that maybe save his Tiger future, but earned him a starting job for the first time ever. Is he the guy who can hit 20-25 homers and 80 RBIs or more? Or is he the guy who hit .160 something with 1 homer and single digit RBIs in the first half last season. He's had talent. Jim Leyand always said he lacked confidence in himself. Maybe he found it in the second half. Raburn has to produce if the Tigers are going to win. Or he gets replaced by Boesch or Wells, or Dirks or Clete Thomas in the minors. But they have to produce.
There are question marks on all those guys, thus the thought that Detroit needs one more reliable bat. Of course those people all thought Rayburn, Boesch, Wells, Clete Thomas, someone out of that outfield log jam could get traded in spring training. Maybe the rapid advancement of Dirks makes some one even more expendable, but there hasn't been a Spring Training trade. So much for that. Now would have been the time when all those guys were hitting well. If someone is hitting .097 in April that kind of diminishes that trade value if you're trying to get an impact player.
The experts think the Tigers could still be lacking a reliable arm in the rotation. I don't know. They could have the best rotation in the AL. They could have Verlander and 4 underachievers.
It's time for Verlander to win 20 games. The last 3 years he's been one of those guys that when you come up with "the top 8 pitchers to be considered for the Cy Young Award" he's at the edge of that conversation. It's time to take that next step forward and be on the "short list" . He needs to move to the elite level from "very good". Getting off to a good April and May will help that. He's been terrible the first 6 weeks about the last season, then found dominance after the All-Star Break. He knows it and he's focused on his intensity in Spring Training so he can reach top form earlier.
Max Scherzer could be a dominant #2. Rick Porcello has the potential to be dominant. Brad Penny has been in the past when healthy. Phil Coke? Who knows. Good stuff. Dominant in the bullpen. We'll see if it translates. Mariano Rivera was a terrible starting pitcher for the Yankees. So he got moved back to the pen and we know how that worked.
Or it could end up being the "first half Max Scherzer" with an ERA over 5 rather than the guy who gave up no more than 1 ER in a start over like 8 straight starts in the second half, struck out 16, struck out 14, etc. etc. It could be the "every month but September" Rick Porcello, not the guy who looked sharp winning 6 straight starts at one point.
Or the "hurts his back early in the year and is ineffective all year" Brad Penny, not the guy who can give you 200 innings and 15 wins.
There have been enough sustained flashes of brilliance from everyone on the roster just about to see this team coming together for a World Series run. Or there could be injuries, hard to define issues more between the ears than anywhere else in the starting rotation and overall lineup and they hover around .500 again.
Hell after the bleak years between 1993-2006, and the way my sports teams generally perform, anytime I can head into a season with hope and optimism that's good.
Of course I had hope and optimism about NC State's basketball team this year too...
No comments:
Post a Comment