Two and a half weeks ago or so Detroit was in a dogfight in the AL Central, the ugly duckling division in baseball this year. Detroit was up about games in the division. They had a negative run differential on the year. Even as a first place team they would have still been in third place in 3 of baseball's other divisions. They had the 6th best record in the AL and were tied with Tampa Bay, who is third in the AL East, in record.
Then they took off. Now they're playing the kind of baseball that may be able to hang with the rest of the teams in the playoffs. Their run differential is still the smallest of the division leaders but it's a respectable +44. Their 9.5 game lead is now the second largest division lead behind Philadelphia's 11 game lead over Atlanta in the NL East.
Detroit is now percentage points ahead of Texas's record, so they no longer have the worst record of the division leaders.
All that is pure statistics. Detroit has the best pitcher in baseball going right now. Miguel Cabrera is one of the best players in the game. They have a closer who hasn't blown a save all year. In a short series if Verlander was dominant and Cabrera had a hot series anything could happen.
But the question was whether or not the Tigers offense was solid enough to score enough runs off of Boston's pitching, or CC Sabathia, or Texas pitching, and also outhit those potent offenses, in the AL or to handle Philadelphia or Milawaukee's total packages if they reached the World Series.
Now the offense is hitting. Austin Jackson is finding a groove at leadoff. Maggio Ordonez is hitting better and getting on base as well ahead of Cabrera and Martinez. Ramon Santiago is providing offensive production at second base and Wilson Betemit at third. So Detroit doesn't have the offensive holes that were limiting the effectiveness of the big bats behind them. They've been getting better the entire second half, which is what many analysts predicted for Detroit's "best case scenario" season.
Now they look like they have an offense that wouldn't be overmatched by CC Sabathia, Roy Halliday and Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, and the other elite starters they'd be seeing in the playoffs.
Are they going to win? Still a tall order. The Phillies are loaded. The Yankee, Red Sox, Ranger, and Brewer offenses are loaded. But Detroit's offense is showing they can score some runs. Doug Fister and Max Scherzer are capable of being dominant behind Verlander, who has been dominant all year. They've made good roster moves and they look very solid.
Months ago my best case was to take joy that they could win a division for the first time since 1987, then hope for a Verlander win in the first round then some good fortune in the other games. Now I do feel they have a viable chance, though they'd be underdogs against the Yankees or Boston. They were underdogs against the Yankees in 2006 though too.
No comments:
Post a Comment