Saturday, July 30, 2011

it looks like the rumored trade is all but official.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/07/doug-fister-mariners-detroit-tigers/1

Detroit gets Fister and Pauly.  Seattle gets Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells, Double A third baseman Francisco Martinez and a player to be named later.  A Seattle newspaper columnist has said that the player to be named later could be a "pretty significant name".  Hmm, Ryan Raburn?  Maybe Detroit has another trick up its sleeve for a third baseman and will turn around and move Wilson Betemit again, or maybe Seattle wants Brandon Inge?

I've seen some Facebook chatter from fans lamenting the loss of Martinez.  At this stage though it seems like Nick Castellanos is carrying the "third baseman of the future" mantle even though he's 19 years old and 3-4 years away from Detroit.  So I don't see the big deal in trading Martinez.  Sure you never know who might boom and who might bust, but given Detroit's long term plans for the last year this seems the reasonable move.  They can have Bitemit hold down third base for several years, or move Peralta back to third and bring in another shortstop, until Castellanos is ready.  The skills he brings seem comparable to David Wright of the Mets.  With that upside Castellanos is certainly worth giving the future shot to.

This sets up Detroit pretty nicely for next year, presuming Fister is the talent stuck on a terrible team that people are saying.  Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Fister, and probably Turner.  A left hander in the rotation would be nice but unless they put some more work in on  Phil Coke and give him another shot, or Andy Oliver gets his control problems fixed in the minors and jumps back ahead of Turner for next year, that's not going to happen unless Detroit makes a deal,  This is assuming that Brad Penny does the expected and doesn't re-sign with Detroit since he was signed to a 1 year deal.  That's likely.  At best he'd get another 1 year deal with Detroit and if they're going to have a pitcher around .500 with an ERA near 5 it's better off being a younger guy with talent and plenty of career upswing ahead of him rather than a guy on the downslide of his career.

In theory this gives them fewer holes then if they'd have landed Jimenez,  That lineup would have been Verlander, Jimenez, then either no Scherzer or no Porcello,  no Penny, then Turner.  So you'd still have to find another pitcher even if Turner makes the team to start next season.  In addition Brennan Boesch would have been gone.  I think Magglio Ordonez is gone after this season unless he accepts a very steep pay cut.  He's on his final team option contract year and getting paid $10 million.  I think Ryan Raburn is going to be gone, either in a last minute deadline deal this year or some off-season maneuver so he's out of the mix.  I think Boesch will be getting a fulltime corner outfield shot with both Raburn and Ordonez moving on, so keeping him is big, especially if he produces like he's starting to show.

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