Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Jeremy theories: What recent events mean for Detroit at the trading deadline

We're now about 5 days before the Major League trading deadline.  The expectation is that Detroit will be buyers, trying to shore up some sports for a pennant run. 

Detroit already traded for Wilson Betemit and made him the everyday third baseman.  Brandon Inge is in the minor leagues in Toledo. He has interest in staying there and working his way to back the Tigers.  He loves the area and the team.   That move seems to mean Detroit won't be in the market for a third baseman like David Wright.

Carlos Guillen is hitting over .300 with a homer and 6 RBIs in 7 games since returning.   He looks to be supplying the bat that Detroit wanted plugged into the offensive deadzone at second base.  I don't think Detroit will be making a second base move unless something falls in their lap.

The Mets recently said that Jose Reyes will end the season as a Met.  He would probably have been too pricey anyway and Detroit now wouldn't be moving Jhonny Peralta to third.

The record of Detroit's number 5 starter is 1-11 on the season.  Justin Verlander has 13 wins.  Max Scherzer has 11.  Rick Porcello has 10.    Brad Penny has hung in there and contributed in the 4 spot. He's 7-7 on the season.  Passable.  Then the 5 spot in the rotation.  1-11.  Dave Dombrowski has said Detroit is in the market for another starting pitcher.  That stat shows that it's a no brainer, especially given how the other factors above have shaped up.


So that's what I expect them to do.  Another arm for the bullpen could be a possibility though I don't seem them going after a big name closer like Heath Bell to make him a setup man.  Too expensive when they have the 8th and 9th inning guys set already.

If the Tigers add another bat I'd think it would be someone who can play all three outfield positions.  I'm sure Detroit would send Andy Dirks to the minors if a veteran bat presented, but that bat would have to be able to play some center field since Dirks has been the primary backup for Austin Jackson.  Casper Wells already went back down when Carlos Guillen came off the DL.  With Jackson still hitting .243 a leadoff hitter could happen.

In terms of regulars moving in some sort of deal,  I not be shocked to see Ryan Raburn get moved.  He's showed potential but he's yet again on pace to hit for only half a season and deliver 12-15 home runs and 50 or 60 RBIs.  Maybe it's time to give the younger Brennan Boesch more time and also clear the way for
other players in the Casper Wells/Andy Dirks/outfield logjam situation.  Raburn has pop and potential and can play at least 5 positions, so he could garner interest.

Brandon Inge could find a suitor and maybe move.  But off the regulars on the team right now I'd say Ryan Raburn, maybe in a package to get a starting pitcher, is the most likely to move if a trade involves a current roster player.

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